Dole's ineffective campaign continues

The latest kerfuffle in the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democrat Kay Hagan revolves around Dole's commercial attacking Hagan for attending a fund-raiser at the Boston home of a man who leads something called the Godless Americans PAC. The commercial implies that Hagan is part of an atheistic conspiracy, and Hagan is suing Dole for defamation.

The commercial has been widely criticized, even by Republican strategists, as going too far. Hagan probably has little chance of winning a libel lawsuit against Dole, but her quick reaction puts voters on notice that she's pretty ticked off. Dole's commercial does have the look of a desperate maneuver. Hagan is leading in most polls, and Dole's campaign has been pitifully ineffective in countering Hagan's smoothly running campaign.

Although a number of high-profile Democrats (including Gov. Mike Easley) declined to take on Dole, who, despite partisan ties to an abysmally unpopular president, seemed headed toward a comfortable re-election, Dole has run one of the most ineffective campaigns in recent memory. First of all, she nearly disappeared from the state over the past five years, apparently feeling comfy with her Washington apartment and her decades of social connections in the capital. Unlike Sen. Richard Burr, who has spent every congressional recess making the rounds in North Carolina's cities and small towns, Dole was rarely seen in North Carolina. Some news media have questioned how many times she actually spent the night in this state since being elected.

Making matters worse, Dole didn't seem to take Hagan seriously and did not gear up her campaign until she belatedly discovered how vulnerable she is. Dole's campaign ads have not been effective in changing the impression that she has been aloof and absent, that she has followed the lead of an unpopular president and that she was more concerned with Washington, D.C., than with Washington, N.C.

Hagan has been less than an ideal candidate. She has said and done things that should cost her support among generally conservative Tar Heel voters. But the Dole campaign, such as it is, has failed to exploit those openings. Hagan has come out in support of ending secret-ballot union elections (a curtsy to the labor unions who have contributed to her campaign) and of the right of N.C. teachers and other state employees to go on strike. She also was unwilling to take a stand on Congress' recent financial bailout package until Dole had already cast her vote against it. Against a more aggressive candidate — or a more effective campaign manager — gaffes like those would be blared to the masses.

So why is Dole ignoring these legitimate differences and harping on the Godless Americans PAC? Hagan was less than astute in attending this fundraiser, which was ripe for exploitation, but it is less of an issue and less of a distinction than Hagan's indecisiveness about big issues and her kowtowing to union directives.

If Dole loses this election, which it looks like she will, she has no one to blame but herself.

30-minute political ad entertaining, perhaps effective

Last night, my wife and I sat down and watched a 30-minute political campaign commercial. We did it voluntarily, and we found it interesting and entertaining.

Democrat Barack Obama, his campaign flush with money, bought the half hour of air time on broadcast and cable networks to present his case to voters. Regardless of how you feel about Obama and his policies, you have to admit that the video production was professional, well-written and -edited, persuasive and positive. As informercials go, it could hardly have been more effective. There were no attacks on opponents — not even a mention or veiled allusion to John McCain and Sarah Palin — just point-by-point explanations of Obama's key issues and his responses to those issues. The prerecorded video segued perfectly to the closing remarks at a live Obama campaign rally in Florida. That took some impressive timing.

As I watched the video, I kept thinking that this is how presidential candidates should present themselves to voters. Instead of all those snarly 30-second campaign commercials attacking their opponents, presidential candidates should take blocks of time to make their cases to American voters. No personal attacks, not even references to opponents, just simple, straightforward explanations of their views of the issues and their proposals to address them.

The Obama video, well written and entertainingly edited, was far more interesting (and perhaps more revealing) than the highly touted but disappointing presidential debates. Thirty minutes and some professional videography gave Obama a chance to make his case without the repetitions, smarmy moderators and carefully rehearsed catch phrases of the debates. Whether the Obama informercial moved voters or convinced doubtful independents, I don't know, and political analysts might never know for sure. But in a campaign that has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on all manner of promotions, this $5 million or so looks like a good investment.

Don't expect 30-minute videos to replace debates or 30-second commercials, but the public and the candidates would be better off if they did.

Attention Fred Smith: Republicans are being outspent

Back in the spring, as he was running for the Republican nomination for governor, Johnston County lawyer-turned-developer Fred Smith made a vow: The Republican nominee for governor would not be outspent by the Democrat, as had happened in all recent elections.

Hey, Fred! Guess what? The Republican nominee for governor is being outspent — by a country mile. According to today's News & Observer, Democrat Bev Perdue is outspending Republican Pat McCrory by a three-to-one margin. The newspaper reports today that Perdue has raised and spent about $15 million compared to McCrory's $5 million.

Fred Smith, where are you when your party needs you?

In fairness, Smith probably meant, when he made that remark in a pre-primary interview with The Wilson Daily Times, that he would not be outspent by a Democratic opponent. Smith, a self-made multi-millionaire who was a more formidable and impressive candidate than I had expected, had the wherewithal to make that vow. He could pour his own money into a gubernatorial race to even things up. Only problem was that he didn't win the Republican nomination. In a crowded field of strong candidates, Smith finished behind McCrory, the Charlotte mayor who was a late addition to the primary contest. Both Smith and Salisbury lawyer Bill Graham had the personal wealth to match the Democrats' campaign war chest.

Where are they now? Perdue, who dodged one-on-one debates with McCrory, and seemed over-programmed and plastic on the stump, has been pounding voters with endorsements and folksy campaign commercials. McCrory risks disappearing from voters' minds as Perdue pops up everywhere.

Smith was right about one thing: It's next to impossible to win a modern statewide political campaign without a lot of money. He vowed his party would not be outspent in 2008. Pat McCrory could use $10 million. Fast.

Park highlights visitors center that should have been

The dedication Monday of the Paul V. Berry Hickory Grove Park drew a substantial crowd, as was appropriate. The park, which was more than five years in the making, is an amazingly peaceful and appealing setting on the site of the old Coon School annex. The former Coon School, a magnificent 1920s-style high school edifice, is now the Golden Leaf Apartments.

Standing on the park grounds, where four Vollis Simpson whirligigs were spinning in the breeze, my eyes were drawn to the brick bungalow on Broad Street, just a short stroll away. The building had been considered once as a visitors center, but that idea was unceremoniously abandoned. The new visitors center is in a sterile, unappealing strip mall storefront set back off U.S. 264 at the Interstate 95 interchange.

It was obvious during the dedication ceremony Monday that the Broad Street bungalow would have been the perfect site for a visitors center. Visitors arriving there could stroll down to the new Hickory Grove Park, where the city of Wilson had its humble beginnings. They could admire the Golden Leaf Apartments. They could walk across the street to the beautifully renovated Wilson County Public Library and its front lawn, which is a public park. The Edna Boykin Cultural Center, BB&T's twin towers, Imagination Station, downtown restaurants and other attractions are within walkable distances. I could easily imagine visitors to Wilson standing on the porches of the bungalow and looking down toward the park framed by the Golden Leaf Apartments and turning to look at the library's whirligig across the street and at the soaring BB&T towers. It would make quite an impression.

Meanwhile, out by the interstate, visitors to the new visitors center can stand out front and admire convenience stores, national chain fast-food joints, nondescript motels and passing cars. Oh, and a sign that says "Wilson, 8 miles." What a calling card Wilson has!

Coming soon: A very close election in N.C.

One week before the election, the candidates and the parties are in the home stretch, making their closing arguments and keeping their fingers crossed. And the conviction in Washington Monday of Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens could have an impact on races nationwide. Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, was convicted on seven counts relating to upgrades done on his vacation home in Alaska. If his reliable seat is lost, which now seems likely, Democrats will be that much closer to a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the Senate.

It is that prospect, of having one party in charge of the White House and the same party with enough votes to ram any legislation it sees fit through Congress, that has animated John McCain's recent campaign speeches. No party has controlled the White House and a filibuster-proof Senate since 1977-79. That scenario also has provided the most effective campaign advertising for Elizabeth Dole, who is trying to hang onto her Senate seat in North Carolina. Democrats need to pick up nine votes to gain unstoppable control of the Senate. Normally, that big a sweep is not possible, but 2008 is a unusual year; Republican candidates everywhere are dragged down by the unpopularity of George W. Bush. Dole has abandoned her ineffective and silly "Fibber Kay" ads in favor of a more realistic and, perhaps, scarier prospect of a filibuster-proof Senate. Hagan, whose campaign is being bolstered by millions in Democratic Senate Campaign Committee money, seems to retain the upper hand with her reminder that her husband, unlike her opponent's, can vote for her.

Not being a betting man, I've generally avoided making predictions about political races. But since I'm no longer working for a newspaper, let me offer some predictions, or at least unscientific intuitions about Nov. 4. In the presidential race, Barack Obama will come close, but John McCain will eke out a win in North Carolina, even as he loses the presidency by a fairly wide electoral vote margin. In the Senate race, Hagan looks like she'll send Dole back home to Kansas (or is it Florida?), although Dole still could pull out a win if she works hard and hammers on the filibuster-proof Senate scenario. In the governor's race, Republican Pat McCrory has won the endorsement of most of the state's major newspapers, including the reliably Democratic Old Reliable News & Observer, the Greensboro News & Record, the Charlotte Observer and others. Democrat Bev Perdue, who comes across as so plastic on the campaign trail that she might be better off not campaigning, will be relying on Democratic loyalty and Obama's expected turnout of new Democratic voters to put her over the top. She might pull it off, but it will be very close. McCrory will need every vote he can muster in the Charlotte, Asheville and Triad areas to compensate for Perdue's eastern N.C. votes. This might be the tightest race in the state; I'll give a slight, very slight, edge to McCrory.

That's my seat-of-the-pants prediction seven days before the election, subject to change as events unfold in this final week.

National Popular Vote forgotten in 2008 campaign

As the presidential election approaches, just eight days away, we haven't heard much about the National Popular Vote, a proposal to have the states sidestep the Electoral College system called for in our Constitution. It is essentially a conspiracy among the states in which the states agree to cast their electoral votes for whichever candidate wins the popular vote. Only three times in history, the most recent being 2000, has the winner of the popular vote not won the electoral vote.

The North Carolina Senate passed the National Popular Vote bill in May 2007. The argument made at the time was that poor North Carolina gets no respect in national elections. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1976; it was reliable, so both presidential candidates pretty much ignored North Carolina.

Not so this year. Presidential and vice presidential candidates have scheduled appearances in North Carolina in the final two weeks of the campaign. Barack Obama and John McCain have visited the state several times this fall. So have Sarah Palin and Joe Biden. North Carolina is getting the attention the supporters of the National Popular Vote bill had promised would come our way if we abandoned the Electoral College system. The difference is that this year North Carolina is "in play." Obama thinks he might win here.

There are two things wrong with the National Popular Vote. First, it is an end run around the Constitution, which calls for electors to select the president based on the voting in each state. If we are to abandon the Electoral College, we should do so honestly, by a constitutional amendment, which would require ratification by three-fourths of the states.

Second, the National Popular Vote would not benefit often-ignored states in the way many advocates contend. A popular vote system would change political strategies, but not in the way you might think. Some populous but often ignored states, such as North Carolina and California, might get more attention from presidential candidates, but political strategy would shift from winning states to winning mass numbers of voters. The most populous states — California, New York, Pennsylvania, Florida, for example — would command most of the candidates' attention. Less-populous states that are now in play, such as Colorado, Iowa or West Virginia, would almost certainly be ignored. Candidates would fish where the largest number of fish are.

The changing political environment this year has shown that electoral strategy is not static. States that have not been contested can suddenly become "battleground states." It all depends on the country's political mood.

Good arguments can be made for a national popular vote strategy, and good arguments can also be made for keeping the Electoral College system, which emphasizes state sovereignty as the Founding Fathers intended. But these arguments should be made on their merits in a debate over a constitutional amendment, not over a back-door conspiracy to void the constitutional mandate to elect presidents via the Electoral College.

Electric rate payers have few options

The already high and rising cost of electricity is getting a lot of attention in Wilson, but city residents have few or no options in this dilemma. Wilson residents pay some of the highest electric rates in the state, but not the highest. Residents of other member cities of the North Carolina Eastern Municipal Power Agency have that honor. What Wilson and 31 other eastern N.C. cities have in common is debt. The cities formed the power agency and purchased shares of the under-construction nuclear power plants being built by Carolina Power & Light nearly 30 years ago. These power plants came on the drawing boards at a time when state officials feared power shortages, and the nuclear power was supposed to be "too cheap to meter."

Unfortunately, a reactor accident at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania multiplied the costs of nuclear plant construction and the costs of producing electricity from nuclear power. NCEMPA, which had hoped for cheaper electricity from its portion of the new plants, ended up with more expensive electricity once the bond debt was added onto the generation costs. Bonds were sold in the early 1980s, when interest rates were at historic highs. Although NCEMPA has refinanced to get cheaper rates, the debt is still staggering. The city of Wilson's share is $400 million — about double the city's annual budget.

Electric rates are going up for everyone, thanks to the increased worldwide demand for energy resources, including coal, natural gas and uranium. The higher costs are especially acute in cities like Wilson, where residents are already paying above-market rates.

But here's the problem: Wilson and the other 31 NCEMPA cities are contractually obligated to NCEMPA for another couple of decades. And there's the debt. Theoretically, Wilson could buy its way out of the NCEMPA, but that would only leave it with additional debt, which would have to be applied to electric rates. Some have suggested selling off Wilson Energy, which provides the retail electricity. This scenario was discussed in the late 1990s, when electric deregulation was touted in many states. But California's experience with deregulation of electricity quickly scared everyone else away. No one wanted to be responsible for the rolling blackouts and exorbitant power rates California experienced. Analysts at the time estimated that Wilson and other cities could not get enough from the sale of their electric systems to pay off their share of the NCEMPA debt. Some deregulation scenarios would have forced cities to sell of their electric systems and left them saddled with a debt they could only repay by raising property taxes. For this reason, NCEMPA and its member cities fought deregulation.

Wilson cannot abandon its legal obligations to NCEMPA and it cannot renege on its debt. The only course the city can take is to try to whittle away at expenses, such as the administrative costs of NCEMPA and ElectriCities. But zeroing out those expenses would amount to only a few pennies per month on the average residential electric bill. Aggressive cost-trimming should be attempted, and any proposal to assume more debt (to buy into proposed new power plants) or extend the current debt should be shot down instantly.