Coming soon: A very close election in N.C.

One week before the election, the candidates and the parties are in the home stretch, making their closing arguments and keeping their fingers crossed. And the conviction in Washington Monday of Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens could have an impact on races nationwide. Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, was convicted on seven counts relating to upgrades done on his vacation home in Alaska. If his reliable seat is lost, which now seems likely, Democrats will be that much closer to a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the Senate.

It is that prospect, of having one party in charge of the White House and the same party with enough votes to ram any legislation it sees fit through Congress, that has animated John McCain's recent campaign speeches. No party has controlled the White House and a filibuster-proof Senate since 1977-79. That scenario also has provided the most effective campaign advertising for Elizabeth Dole, who is trying to hang onto her Senate seat in North Carolina. Democrats need to pick up nine votes to gain unstoppable control of the Senate. Normally, that big a sweep is not possible, but 2008 is a unusual year; Republican candidates everywhere are dragged down by the unpopularity of George W. Bush. Dole has abandoned her ineffective and silly "Fibber Kay" ads in favor of a more realistic and, perhaps, scarier prospect of a filibuster-proof Senate. Hagan, whose campaign is being bolstered by millions in Democratic Senate Campaign Committee money, seems to retain the upper hand with her reminder that her husband, unlike her opponent's, can vote for her.

Not being a betting man, I've generally avoided making predictions about political races. But since I'm no longer working for a newspaper, let me offer some predictions, or at least unscientific intuitions about Nov. 4. In the presidential race, Barack Obama will come close, but John McCain will eke out a win in North Carolina, even as he loses the presidency by a fairly wide electoral vote margin. In the Senate race, Hagan looks like she'll send Dole back home to Kansas (or is it Florida?), although Dole still could pull out a win if she works hard and hammers on the filibuster-proof Senate scenario. In the governor's race, Republican Pat McCrory has won the endorsement of most of the state's major newspapers, including the reliably Democratic Old Reliable News & Observer, the Greensboro News & Record, the Charlotte Observer and others. Democrat Bev Perdue, who comes across as so plastic on the campaign trail that she might be better off not campaigning, will be relying on Democratic loyalty and Obama's expected turnout of new Democratic voters to put her over the top. She might pull it off, but it will be very close. McCrory will need every vote he can muster in the Charlotte, Asheville and Triad areas to compensate for Perdue's eastern N.C. votes. This might be the tightest race in the state; I'll give a slight, very slight, edge to McCrory.

That's my seat-of-the-pants prediction seven days before the election, subject to change as events unfold in this final week.