Presidential debate, one last time

Tonight's presidential debate will be voters' last look at the two candidates on one stage, but I doubt that it will have a profound impact on voter opinions. The first two debates were fundamentally a draw — neither candidate struck a decisive blow or swallowed his entire foot. Each represented himself well and did little to turn away supporters or attract new fans.

Chances are, tonight's debate will have the same results. Before the second debate, I feared that the event at Belmont University could turn nasty. John McCain had been urged to "take the gloves off." But he remained civil while still getting in a few digs at his opponent. That angered some of his supporters who thought he was too easy on Barack Obama. This attitude was exemplified twice in the past week, when McCain corrected a supporter at a town-hall-style meeting when she called Obama "an Arab" and again when a supporter condemned Obama. To his credit, McCain told his supporters that Obama is a good person with whom he disagrees on policy matters. The supporters didn't care for that level of maturity and perspective, and boos were heard in the arena.

The polls have Obama surging ahead, largely as a result of the sour economy. No matter what the cause of an economic downturn, the party in the White House gets the blame. McCain is suffering from his connection to the Grand Old Party and President Bush while Obama benefits by representing the other side. With three weeks to go before election day, things can change dramatically. A whole new issue, as unexpected as the economic meltdown of the past month, could steal the headlines and alter the electoral dynamics. But without such a dramatic change, Obama has the advantage, through circumstances not of his own making.

Ironically, if this election were being decided on the issue both candidates thought a year ago would be paramount, McCain might be surging ahead. Obama built his campaign and his early victories on his opposition to the Iraq War. He backed Hillary Clinton into a corner over her initial support of a war resolution. He said we never should have started the war. He promised to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq. He opposed last year's troop surge.

But something unexpected happened: U.S. fortunes in Iraq turned around. Death tolls declined. Whole neighborhoods and whole cities in Iraq became safe again. U.S. troops and the Iraqi government gained popularity. A new counter-insurgency strategy and the insertion of 30,000 new troops turned the corner in Iraq. War news fell out of the headlines.

Recent polls show the Iraq War is having little impact on voters' decisions. If the war were paramount, McCain could be saying "I told you so" and riding a wave of military success. Obama would be forced to justify his intentions to pull out of Iraq without achieving the success that has now been found.

But the Iraq War, the overriding issue of the early primaries, is an afterthought today, three weeks before the election. All voters really care about now is the economy.