It's a new year, though only a few hours removed from the old year. It is not, as some list-makers have claimed, the end of the decade. (Decades begin in the year ###1 and end in the year ###0.) But instead of looking back on 2001-09, let's look ahead at 2010.
• This year should bring a climax to the multiple investigations of the Easley administration. My guess is that there will be an indictment on at least some of the charges against him. It could be as minor as campaign finance misreporting or as serious as influence-peddling. Will it be failure to report free flights on private aircraft or pressuring N.C. State to hire his wife or manipulating state regulatory responsibility for fun and profit?
• However the grand jury decides on the Easley issues, the embarrassing publicity and some retirements from the legislature should make 2010 a golden opportunity for North Carolina Republicans. After losses in 2006 and 2008, the GOP needs a win or two. As usual for the state GOP, the question will be whether it can present competent, qualified candidates or will it insist upon ideological purity? The key will be independents, also known as unaffiliated voters. If Republicans can woo them instead of scaring them away, Republicans could rule in Raleigh.
• President Obama got his health care bill through the Senate. Now he and congressional leaders have to resolve the many differences between Senate and House versions. This may be even more difficult than bargaining 60 Senate votes. Democrats are determined to get a health care bill signed, so it could happen. One thing to remember, however: Most of the provisions of the bill will not take effect until 2011, which means the new provisions won't help Democratic candidates in 2010 elections. In fact, the bill could hurt them if critics succeed in highlighting ambiguities and disinformation about the bill.
• The war in Afghanistan continues with the addition of new U.S. troops, but victory over the Taliban and the entrenched tribal loyalties of the Afghans is not assured. American troops are to leave Iraq, but that squalid country is still a dangerous place that could easily collapse into civil war.
• A larger concern than either Afghanistan or Iraq should be the global conspiracy to wage a war between fundamentalist Islam and the secular (or Judeo-Christian) West. Recent failed plots to attack U.S. facilities and recruit American jihadists portend an increasingly dangerous world. Although the militant jihadists are a tiny percentage of Muslims, their ideology and their tactics endanger people of all faiths and threaten to undo the civilizing arc that began with the Enlightenment. America and the West, along with the moderate majority of Muslims, must recognize this threat and eliminate it before it sends civilization into a fatal tailspin. 2010 could be a crucial year in this struggle.
• The American economy should improve in 2010, but it will be a long time before "good times" return. Savings, home values and employment will improve some, but not a lot. Unless there is a seismic shock, such as a successful terrorist attack, things should improve incrementally through the coming year. Many geographic areas will continue to have persistently high unemployment. Instead of a new stimulus, Congress should review and revise government policies on trade, taxes, banking and manufacturing that got us into this mess.
• 2010 by most any measure should be better than 2009, but that's a bit like being sweeter than a salt lick.
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