Will Egypt find 'same as the old boss'?

There is a lot of celebration in Cairo over the ouster of Hosni Mubarak, and Washington and other Western capitals seem pleased, too. The Egyptian military establishment, which has been touted in news reports as a stabilizing force and a greatly admired institution, has taken over the governing powers.

Better dial back the ecstasy just a bit. Egyptians and Americans with any memory at all will remember that the military has been in the place before. After all, all three of Egypt's previous rulers have come out of the military. Mubarak, as he reminded his countrymen before resigning his office, was a military officer. Anwar Sadat, his predecessor, also came out of the military elite. And before Sadat, Gamal Abdel Nasser was a military officer before becoming president. Each of the three was innovative and forward-thinking in his own way, but all three ruled as dictators, not fairly elected choices of a free electorate.

All three men were autocratic rulers presiding over despotic, corrupt regimes. It seems unlikely that the military that produced three despots who ruled with iron fists for nearly 60 years would suddenly produce, or give way to, a democratically elected administration. It seems more likely that the protesters in Tahrir Square will have traded one ex-military authoritarian ruler for another.

We can hope for a better outcome, for the kind of democracy that the peaceful protesters demanded, but until we see evidence to the contrary, the safer bet is for another ruler in the mold of Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak.