Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Was that a debate or a display?

I turned on the TV for the first time in a couple of weeks last night to watch seven Republicans in New Hampshire answer questions before a friendly audience. It's hard to describe the spectacle as a debate.

However, I found the discussion remarkably civil and most of the candidates for the GOP nomination for president fairly reasonable-sounding. Even Michelle Bachmann, whom I'd never seen before, seemed less the fire-breathing loony as she has often been described than simply a very conservative member of Congress. Ron Paul, a holdover from the 2008 GOP debates, defended his title as the most far-out candidate, repeatedly calling for truly radical policy changes, such as eliminating all overseas military operations. On the other hand, there is some solid logic in Paul's contention that America would be better off defending its own borders than defending Iraq's or Afghanistan's.

Mitt Romney, the presumed front-runner in the GOP contest, looks as presidential as he did in 2008, but he still comes across as overly aggressive, never missing an opportunity to change the subject from whatever he was asked to what he really wanted to talk about — the "failures" of Barack Obama. This is not conventional wisdom, but Romney appears to me to be over-coached, told by consultants to repeat his campaign themes no matter what the question, and his themes come across as well-practiced platitudes. I didn't think he helped himself in last night's event.

Rick Santorum also surprised me a little. It takes some audacity to run for president after losing your last Senate race, but Santorum stood in and won a few points. But he looks a bit geeky, and it's hard to imagine him staying very long in this race.

Tim Pawlenty came across as well-informed and rational. He won points by citing specific accomplishments as governor and translating those into presidential policy. I thought he helped himself, though one pundit I read criticized him for not taking advantage of the opportunity to attack the front-runner, Romney.

Visually, Newt Gingrich came across as the old man on the stage. Heavier and much jowlier than when he was speaker of the House, Gingrich sometimes slipped into his lecturing mode and lost both moderator John King and the audience. But Gingrich occasionally showed how he can cite specific historical incidents to explicate his points in a manner that leaves others awed.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the event for me was Herman Cain, the former pizza CEO and political novice who largely held his own against the seasoned politicians beside him. Cain was forceful in his answers and espoused largely mainstream, Chamber-of-Commerce-friendly policies. His might be the longest shot of this GOP showcase, but he's not an impossibility. Wouldn't it be extraordinary if the 2012 contest were between two black men — Obama and Cain?

This is the first heat of a long and complex contest. Six months from now, the Big Seven will probably be winnowed to four or five, perhaps with the addition of former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. It's a long way to the GOP convention and even longer to the general election, but last night's event showed that the Republicans have some viable candidates. If the economy remains stagnant, President Obama will have a tough fight against one of the GOP hopefuls.

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