In
the first 100 years of the American Republic, only one president was impeached
(and the senator who cast the decisive “not guilty” vote was lauded in John F.
Kennedy’s “Profiles in Courage”). In the last 50 years, I have lived through
two (failed) impeachments and am now facing a potential third trial aimed at
removing Donald Trump from office.
With
the release of the Mueller report, it is now up to Congress to decide whether
President Trump will be impeached. The special counsel investigation failed to
find prima facie evidence of conspiracy between Russia and the Trump campaign to
sway the 2016 election to Trump, but it did find an abundance of evidence of
dishonesty, cruelty, misuse of office, malfeasance, abuse of presidential power
and abuse of federal officials. It also showed the Trump campaign did nothing
to rebuff or discourage Russia’s improper interventions. The Constitution
provides for impeachment of a president for “high crimes and misdemeanors,” and
Trump defenders claim no one has presented credible evidence of a “high crime.”
But
did the authors of the Constitution intend to limit impeachment only to
specific federal crimes (there were no federal criminal statutes at the time
the Constitution was ratified)? Or were the authors of the Constitution
intentionally vague in order to punish misbehavior, incompetence or
disreputable behavior in office? Many contend the latter thinking was intended
in the impeachment clause.
Many
elected officials (most of them Democrats) have cited Trump’s blatant lies, his
mistreatment of subordinates and international allies, his narcissism, his
attacks on the federal courts, his mendacity, his contempt for American values
and institutions as more than adequate grounds for impeachment.
Some
Democrats and a few others are pushing for Congress to bring impeachment
charges against the president, but the Democratic leadership in Congress has
advocated caution over any impeachment bill. Theoretically, an impeachable
offense is whatever Congress says it is. It is the sole authority on this
matter, authorized to bring charges in the House and convict or find not guilty
in the Senate. Because GOP senators have lined up behind Trump, no matter what,
an impeachment trial conviction is highly unlikely.
Although
Congress determines whether an incident is an impeachable offense, there is
another factor involved: voters. In the 1974 impeachment case against Richard
Nixon, a majority of Americans had lost all confidence in Nixon. His approval
ratings in polls dropped into the 20 percent range. The courts had ruled
against his refusal to give up subpoenaed evidence of his obstruction of
justice. Even then, Nixon had a loyal following among a small minority of
voters and a league of loyalists on Capitol Hill. It took the intervention of
Sen. Barry Goldwater, the most respected Republican in Congress, to convince
Nixon that he had to resign or face certain removal from office.
When
the House voted to impeach Bill Clinton in 1998, the president remained popular.
He recorded his highest popularity rating — 73 percent — in the month that the
House voted to impeach him. He was quickly acquitted by the Senate. The Clinton
impeachment came to be viewed as a ghastly overreach by Republicans in
Congress. Yes, Clinton had a disgusting affair with a 22-year-old White House
intern, and he lied about it, but he lied to protect himself and his family,
not to harm the country. Pushing the Clinton matter to the level of impeachment
hurt the Republican Party, so Democratic leaders are cautious about going down
that road again.
Their
caution is sensible, but Trump might not be immunized from impeachment. The
Mueller report, at first lauded and then condemned by Trump, did not exonerate
the president. It revealed or confirmed a number of incidents that could be
criminal misconduct, including obstruction of justice. Congress will
investigate Trump’s finances, including the likelihood that his businesses
violated the emoluments clause of the Constitution. The Mueller report may be only
the beginning of a serious examination of Trump misconduct that could lead to
impeachment.
Trump’s
next test will likely be at the ballot box 18 months from now, not in an
impeachment bill before Congress. Some have raised concerns that Trump might refuse
to vacate his office if he is impeached or defeated at the polls. After all, he
still contends, against all evidence, that he won the popular vote in 2016. His
base of loyal, determined supporters likely will follow him down whatever road
he takes. They have made it clear that they are loyal to Trump, not to the
Constitution.
In
2020 voters will choose whether to believe a president who dismisses as “fake
news” anything that makes him look bad or fails to bolster his ego against
someone (a candidate to be named later) who will promise a return to respect
for federal agencies, institutions, laws and standards.
Hal Tarleton is a former editor of The Wilson Daily
Times. Contact him at haltarleton@myglnc.com.
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