Impeachment 2019 won't be like Impeachment 1974

As the impeachment of a president begins to look more and more likely, I have found myself thinking back to the 1974 impeachment proceedings against Richard Nixon. I was working in Washington at the time, reading the Washington Post daily and feeling excited about having a close-up seat for this political drama.

Nixon was not impeached, but the House Judiciary Committee had filed articles of impeachment and sent them to the full House for a vote. Recognizing that the House vote would be overwhelmingly for impeachment, Nixon reluctantly resigned, thereby allowing appointed Vice President Gerald Ford to ascend to the presidency and issue a pardon, which saved Nixon from charges for criminal conduct the impeachment inquiry had revealed.

It took a visit from Sen. Barry Goldwater, the most recognized and admired Republican in the Senate, to convince Nixon that his presidency could not survive an impeachment vote. If Nixon had not resigned, the impeachment trial before the full Senate could have dragged on for weeks, leaving the country nearly rudderless.

The 2019 impeachment debate will play out in a very different climate. Nixon had lost the support of all but the most dedicated Republicans. A recent poll showed Trump’s overall approval rating around 50 percent, but his approval among registered Republicans was more than 90 percent. It’s difficult to explain the disparity in one large portion of the electorate. Trump’s lashing out at every criticism and total denial of every accusation has to be a factor in the polls’ schism. His true believers have been trained to ignore all news reports that do not emanate from Trump himself or his minions.

Another factor in Trump’s favor if impeachment happens is his demand for personal loyalty from all appointees in his administration as well as elected officials. Although federal officials take an oath to uphold, protect and defend the Constitution, Trump demands and usually gets personal loyalty. If enough people in power violate their oath to uphold the Constitution and rule instead in favor of Trump’s interests, any impeachment vote will fail.

For Nixon, the secret Oval Office audiotapes were the deciding factor for impeachment. The Supreme Court ruled unanimously that Nixon had to release the tapes. Would a 2019 Supreme Court, with a 5-4 Republican majority including two Trump appointees, rule against this president? We may find out before this is all over.

Trump has been frequently accused of violating his oath of office and seeking to rule regardless of Constitutional restrictions and balance of power. He also faces lawsuits alleging he is violating the emoluments clause of the Constitution by accepting (and even marketing) stays at his hotels and resorts paid by foreign governments. His latest alleged violation involves telephone calls to the president of Ukraine. Those calls could be problematic on two counts: (1) Trump asks for “a favor” involving a Ukrainian investigation of former Vice President Joe Biden and his son; and (2) Trump uses his elective office to conduct personal business, a vendetta against the Bidens, and brings in his personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, and U.S. Attorney General Robert Barr. Using company time, company assets and company resources to conduct personal business is unethical on any level. If true, Trump has committed what amounts to a corporate executive conducting his Amway business from his corporate desk.

What makes this impeachment inquiry particularly difficult is Trump’s insistence that he has never, ever done anything wrong (and claimed the calls to Ukraine were “perfect”), and his followers’ willingness to believe every word from a man with an astounding history of prevarications. A delegation from Congress, like the one that convinced Nixon to resign, will not work with Trump. If he goes down, he will go down screaming his innocence and perfection.