Marshall wins but faces Burr next

Hand it to Elaine Marshall. She won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate by hard work and a solid record in elective office. In a few months we'll find out whether hard work and political experience are enough to unseat an incumbent Republican, Richard Burr.

Marshall got no respect from the Democratic establishment. The national party strategists didn't think she had what it takes to take on Burr. They tried to talk Bob Etheridge into the race (this was before he manhandled some rude questioners with a video camera on a Washington street), but he wasn't interested. Other "name" Democrats were reportedly asked to jump into the ring, too, but declined. Cal Cunningham, a former state senator with youthful good looks and a compelling history as an Iraq War veteran, got the national backing but finished second in the first primary. In Tuesday's primary, he was not able to turn the tables on Marshall, who used traditional political tactics to motivate and turn out voters in the low-turnout election.

Marshall has an impressive record. She cleaned up the Secretary of State's office when she took it over from Rufus Edmisten. She earned a reputation as a good administrator who ran a clean office and clean campaigns. And she even managed to toil onward in her campaign after the death of her husband, Bill Holdford of Wilson. But no one ever accused her of being dynamic, charismatic or a stem-winding speaker. She's an old-style politician who tends to win votes one at a time.

Interestingly enough, so is Burr. He's a low-key campaigner who is unassuming and not in the least "full of himself" as many politicians are. In the 30-plus years I covered political campaigns, I don't think I ever met a politician who traveled solo the way Burr did. Every candidate from gubernatorial and senatorial down to state House candidates all had a press secretary, a chief of staff, a driver, a strategist, or somebody traveling with them as they dropped in on key leaders, donors and news media. But Burr drove himself and was ready to answer questions without any whispers from any strategists or media handlers. Burr has not set the public opinion polls on fire, perhaps for that very reason. Democratic strategists see his mediocre approval ratings and think he's vulnerable, but he might just be too low key to register in polls taken a year before an election.

If Marshall loses to Burr, the national party strategists might tell N.C. Democratic primary voters, "We told you so (you shoulda voted for Cunningham)," but the problem might not be Marshall. It might be that Burr is a more formidable candidate than he appears from the Democratic side. He's a cautious, conservative candidate who is neither the darling of nor the enemy of the Tea Party wing. And he's a better campaigner than most people give him credit for — just like Marshall. Burr's secret weapon is that in this anti-incumbent year, it's better to be a Republican, the party that is not in charge of both the executive and the legislative branches of government. Working against him is the jinx attached to the seat he holds. No one has held the seat for more than one term since Sam Ervin retired. It's been an endless loop of six years for a Democrat, then six years for a Republican, then six years for a Democrats ... Burr has perhaps the best opportunity yet to end this rerun.

Secretary of state tries for Senate

Elaine Marshall, the North Carolina secretary of state, not the English professor at Barton College, is running for U.S. Senate, hoping to unseat Republican Richard Burr in the 2010 election. Since winning the secretary of state office in 1996, Marshall, a former state senator, has proven herself to be an able and innovative manager. She has had no trouble getting re-elected to her job after initially embarrassing Republican Richard Petty, who thought he could cruise through the 1996 election on the strength of his celebrity. Although her post is not widely known, Marshall has been widely acknowledged as an exemplary public servant. She upgraded services and computer technology in the secretary of state's office, dragging the entrenched, out-of-date office (thank you, Rufus Edmisten) into the computer age.

But is that good enough to beat Burr? Democrats have been salivating over the prospects of defeating Burr, who is seen as weak and vulnerable. This time, in 2010, he won't be riding the coattails of a Republican president, and his name recognition and approval ratings have been low. But Burr is an unusual and deceptive politician. He may be the most unassuming major office holder in North Carolina. During the 2004 campaign, he traveled alone, driving his own car and keeping his own schedule. There was no press secretary, no chief of staff, no chauffeur, no scheduler, no jacket-holder, no security guard and no hangers-on in his campaign swings. He was refreshingly unpolitical and straightforward. Although political advisers say this style of "retail politics" no longer works in an age of mass media and "wholesale politics," Burr seems comfortable with this simple, one-on-one style, and he is remarkably effective at it.

As good an administrator as Elaine Marshall is, she has not impressed me as an inspiring, highly motivating stump speaker. Marshall would probably make a good senator. She's smart, and she has the skills needed for persuasion and compromise. But it's hard to imagine her firing up the Democratic base for what will inevitably be a tough fight against an incumbent.

Marshall is also an at least part-time resident of Wilson. She is married to Wilson attorney Bill Holdford. Both Marshall and Holdford had been widowed.