Don't expect change after Florida school massacre

The Ash Wednesday (Valentine's Day) massacre at a Florida high school was in some ways even more horrifying than all the other mass shootings America has endured over the past 20 years. The formula is a simple one: One disgruntled, angry, excluded individual (or more) armed with one or more rapid-fire guns, one location where scores of unsuspecting, defenseless people are gathered. Stir well, then listen to the grieving parents, survivors and others. Then hear the politicians express grief, regret, sorrow and comfort, then do nothing. Now await the next massacre following the above recipe.

After last week's massacre, students at Stoneman Douglas High School vocally stepped up to demand action by politicians who have too often obediently done the National Rifle Association's bidding while ignoring the pleas and opinions of their constituents. The elementary school children who were killed (20 children) and terrorized (all the others) in Newtown, Conn., could not advocate for themselves, and their grieving parents have been ignored.

These Stoneman Douglas students are different. They are at the cusp of adulthood. Some are eligible to vote or soon will be. They also have the idealism of youth. They expect elected officials to listen to them. The "younger generation" has not been so motivated since the Vietnam War. The draft protesters of the 1960s had "skin in the game." They (at least the males) faced a military draft that could send them to Southeast Asia as cannon fodder in an ill-conceived war half a world away.

Today's young people, male and female, face a more immediate threat from begrudged malcontents armed with rapid-fire military combat weapons and thousands of rounds of ammunition in high-capacity magazines. This generation feels threatened, and for good reason. Mass shootings have become routine events. Schools have protocols for limiting casualties and alerting law enforcement quickly, but the massacres continue. You might be next. Or you. Or you.

The organizing students are determined to see action from their elected representatives, and they want more than "thoughts and prayers" or anguish about mental illness. They want combat weaponry out of the hands of murderous civilians. They want schools and other public places to be safe from crazed killers with arsenals.

History will not offer much hope to the Florida student organizers. Newtown, Columbine, the Colorado theater shooting, the Florida nightclub massacre, and the Las Vegas concert shooting gallery did not change anything, despite the grief and shock that followed each incident. Politicians have more motivation to do the bidding of the NRA, which buys congressional votes with millions of dollars in campaign contributions, than to protect America's innocent children. Youth movements also tend to falter on the fact that younger people are not regular, consistent voters, and their anger tends not to last through more than one or two election cycles.

Kudos to the organizing survivors of Stoneman Douglas High, but don't expect things to change. The odds are against it.