This post was published as a column in The Wilson Times March 30, 2019.
It’s not a presidential
election year, is it? This is an odd-numbered year. Shouldn’t we be protected
from presidential campaign promises for nine more months?
I guess not.
At last count (the counting
done by CNN), sixteen Democrats are in the race to succeed President Donald
Trump (who, as an incumbent, presumably will have little, if any, Republican
opposition). But wait: CNN lists eleven more Democrats who “might” run. There
are also four Democrats who have said they won’t run and another one who officially
dropped out of the race.
I hope all of you registered
Democrats and Independents (who can vote in either primary, but not both) are
paying attention.
Much has been made of the
Democratic Party’s lean toward the left. With candidates such as Sen. Bernie
Sanders (a 2016 candidate), Sen. Elizabeth Warren and U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke
favoring many of the policies of the party’s liberal wing. A freshman
congressman, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, has generated a lot of media coverage for
her outspoken leftist views, including a video arguing that socialism is better
than capitalism, but she is not in the presidential race … yet.
Not all the Democratic
candidates are as far to the left as Sanders or Warren, but most analysts agree
that the Democratic base has a stronger leftward tilt this year. Even
candidates who are more moderate will be painted by Republicans with liberal
colors. Already, Ocasio-Cortez has become the stereotype Trump has assigned to all
Democrats.
Although the Democratic base
may have shifted, the nationwide electorate has not moved leftward, or at least
not by much. Most Americans see themselves as moderates and are likely to vote
that way in the 2020 elections. If the Democrats hope to defeat Trump, they
will need a moderate candidate who honors patriotism, effective immigration
reforms, secure borders, restrained federal spending, free trade, sensible
regulatory authority and inclusive “big tent” politics.
The Democratic field for
2020 is “diverse” if nothing else. I counted six women, one Hispanic, two
Jamaican-Americans, one Indian-American, one African-American, one
Asian-American, one Pacific Islander-American, two Hindu Americans, one gay
American, and one “spiritual counselor.” They range in age from 37 to 77. (Some
candidates fit in more than one category.)
The ones who seem to be
front-runners have not excited me yet. Sen. Cory Booker comes across as
sanctimonious and overly aggressive. Sen. Elizabeth Warren hits some good
notes, but she also sounds like a policy wonk who is talking down to ordinary
voters. Sen. Kamala Harris makes her leftist views sound positive, but she
hasn’t won over moderate voters yet. Beto O’Rourke talks and acts like a
front-runner, despite limited experience and a loss in last year’s challenge to
Sen. Ted Cruz, a 2016 presidential candidate. O’Rourke can raise money, but can
he win a big election? Maybe his looks, which remind me of Bobby Kennedy, will
help him. If they decide to run, Joe Biden or John Kerry could probably beat
any of these candidates in a primary.
I like to remind people that
presidential campaigns have grown far too long. John F. Kennedy announced his
1960 presidential bid on … wait for it
… Jan. 1, 1960. He managed to do pretty well only 10 months later.
Hal Tarleton is a former editor of The Wilson Daily
Times. Contact him at haltarleton@myglnc.com.
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